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Ideas Behind Better Decisions

Insights on analytics, data-driven decision-making, and applied research.

Queueing model comparing customer support response times and staffing requirements across four agent levels.
Predictive Analytics & Operations

How Many Support Agents Do You Need to Meet a Response-Time Target?

How many support agents does your business actually need? Explore how queueing theory, Erlang C, response-time targets, and labor costs help turn demand forecasts into staffing decisions.

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Two traffic segments improve their conversion rates while the overall rate falls from 9.2% to 3.9% as the traffic mix changes.
Data Visualization & Business Intelligence

Why Did Overall Conversion Rate Fall When Every Segment Improved?

A declining conversion rate does not always mean performance deteriorated. Learn how traffic mix, weighted averages, and Simpson's paradox can change the story behind a business KPI.

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Comparison showing 60% customer retention and 116.7% net revenue retention in a hypothetical subscription business.
Business Analytics

Revenue Is Growing. Why Are We Still Losing Customers?

Strong revenue growth can conceal customer losses. Learn how net revenue retention, gross retention, and customer churn reveal different dimensions of business performance.

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Comparison of two classification thresholds showing higher accuracy but greater modeled business cost for the stricter threshold.
Data Science & Machine Learning

Why Can a Lower-Accuracy Classification Threshold Save More Money?

A classifier can achieve higher accuracy while producing more expensive decisions. Learn how decision thresholds, error costs, and operational capacity change model value.

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Two groups' performance trends before and after a business change, illustrating a difference-in-differences comparison.
Decision Analytics

Did the Change Actually Work? Measuring Business Impact Without an A/B Test

A business metric improved after a change. Did the change cause it? Learn how difference-in-differences uses comparison groups, counterfactual reasoning, and practical checks to evaluate impact without randomized experiments.

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Comparison of paid search and paid social showing lower lead costs but higher customer acquisition costs for paid social.
Marketing & Digital Analytics

Why Is Cost per Lead Falling While Customer Acquisition Cost Rises?

Cheaper leads do not always mean cheaper customers. Learn how lead quality, CRM conversion tracking, and acquisition economics can change marketing decisions.

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Operational KPI control chart showing normal variation, a statistical alert, and a separate business performance target.
Business Intelligence & Data Visualization

When Is a KPI Change Worth Investigating? Control Charts vs. Business Targets

Is a KPI change meaningful or normal variation? Learn how control charts, business targets, and a worked example improve dashboard decisions.

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Comparison of two hospitals showing how raw readmission rankings reverse after adjusting for patient risk.
Healthcare Analytics & Outcomes Research

Which Hospital Has Better Readmission Outcomes? Why Raw Rates Can Mislead

A hospital with a higher raw readmission rate may perform better after accounting for patient risk. Explore case-mix adjustment through a worked comparison.

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Decision analysis comparing a product launch with and without market research, showing expected value and research costs.
Decision Analytics

Should You Pay for More Research Before Making a Business Decision?

More research is not always worth the cost. Learn how EVPI, EVSI, and decision thresholds help determine whether better information can improve a business decision.

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Decision tree and Markov model comparing healthcare pathways, repeated health-state transitions, costs, and outcomes.
Health Economics & Simulation

Decision Tree vs. Markov Model: Which Should You Use for Healthcare Cost-Effectiveness Analysis?

When should healthcare cost-effectiveness studies use a decision tree or Markov model? Compare methods through a worked example with costs, QALYs, and ICERs.

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Timeline showing October 1 transactions arriving on different days and changing historical revenue totals from $300 to $600.
Data Engineering & Analytics

Why Did Yesterday’s Revenue Change? Late-Arriving Data, Backfills, and Reporting Cutoffs

Historical dashboard totals can change when transactions arrive late or source records are corrected. Learn how reporting cutoffs, backfills, and SQL make those revisions explainable.

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Demand forecast with an uncertainty range connected to safety stock, reorder points, and inventory decisions.
Predictive Analytics & Operations

Why Do Accurate Demand Forecasts Still Lead to Stockouts?

Accurate demand forecasts can still lead to stockouts. Learn how forecast uncertainty, safety stock, lead times, and reorder points shape inventory decisions.

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